| Pages in topic: < [1 2 3 4 5] > | Translation business in a deep slump? Thread poster: JAN SNAUWAERT
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Zea_Mays 
Italy
Local time: 16:54
English to German
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| economy in a slump? | Aug 2 |
"Some fresh data stoked fears over a possible recession and the notion that the Federal Reserve could be too late to start cutting interest rates.
Initial jobless claims rose the most since August 2023. The ISM manufacturing index, a barometer of factory activity in the U.S., came in at 46.8%, worse than expected and a signal of economic contraction. After these releases, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped below 4% for the first time since... See more "Some fresh data stoked fears over a possible recession and the notion that the Federal Reserve could be too late to start cutting interest rates.
Initial jobless claims rose the most since August 2023. The ISM manufacturing index, a barometer of factory activity in the U.S., came in at 46.8%, worse than expected and a signal of economic contraction. After these releases, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped below 4% for the first time since February."
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/31/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
Some say the Japanese market and currency will have some trouble soon.
[Bearbeitet am 2024-08-02 08:42 GMT] ▲ Collapse
| | | | | Let the AI bros play | Aug 2 |
Don't worry. It's just the AI tech bros of Silicon Valley trying out their shiny new toy to please investors and venture capitalists. And of course greedy enterprises all over the world happily drink the Kool-Aid of AI for the sake of "efficiencies" and "progress".
But fear not. As always, the market will self-regulate.*
*Once the climate is ruined beyond repair, with more mega-fires than ever and less water than ever.
[Edite... See more Don't worry. It's just the AI tech bros of Silicon Valley trying out their shiny new toy to please investors and venture capitalists. And of course greedy enterprises all over the world happily drink the Kool-Aid of AI for the sake of "efficiencies" and "progress".
But fear not. As always, the market will self-regulate.*
*Once the climate is ruined beyond repair, with more mega-fires than ever and less water than ever.
[Edited at 2024-08-02 15:21 GMT] ▲ Collapse
| | | | Zea_Mays
Italy
Local time: 16:54
English to German
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Today the US unemployment rate was published -
"U.S. unemployment rate ticks up to 4.3% amid signs of broader economic slowdown
The hiring rate has fallen to a level not seen since the onset of the pandemic — and before that, 2014. " ... See more Today the US unemployment rate was published -
"U.S. unemployment rate ticks up to 4.3% amid signs of broader economic slowdown
The hiring rate has fallen to a level not seen since the onset of the pandemic — and before that, 2014. "
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/jobs-report-july-2024-employment-numbers-analysis-rcna164651 ▲ Collapse
| | | | | I hope you're right | Aug 6 |
Epameinondas,
I sincerely do hope that your confident reply is right, but I'm not sure.
I've been a professional translator for 26 years, and at my age, recycling and trying something else really isn't an option.
I have seen over the past year, since last summer really, such a deep drop in the volume of work that it defies belief. I'm in survival mode, but I have family responsibilities. It's scary.
Against all evidence to the contrary, I have to believe the AI wave is ... See more Epameinondas,
I sincerely do hope that your confident reply is right, but I'm not sure.
I've been a professional translator for 26 years, and at my age, recycling and trying something else really isn't an option.
I have seen over the past year, since last summer really, such a deep drop in the volume of work that it defies belief. I'm in survival mode, but I have family responsibilities. It's scary.
Against all evidence to the contrary, I have to believe the AI wave is a storm that will pass, and customers will come to their senses and realize they need us after all.
Or we're (I'm) dead.
James. ▲ Collapse
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| I was being sarcastic | Aug 6 |
I do not really expect the market to self-regulate. In this post-truth world obsessed with "meta-" everything, people are too willing to try the snake oil known as "AI".
My first reaction is to step away from being an external collaborator of translation companies to being their competitor. I am actively looking for my own clients as a solo entrepreneur. I am aiming at companies that need content of high quality without the unnecessary overhead of project managers, who do nothing bu... See more I do not really expect the market to self-regulate. In this post-truth world obsessed with "meta-" everything, people are too willing to try the snake oil known as "AI".
My first reaction is to step away from being an external collaborator of translation companies to being their competitor. I am actively looking for my own clients as a solo entrepreneur. I am aiming at companies that need content of high quality without the unnecessary overhead of project managers, who do nothing but take a slice of the cake just for exchanging a few emails full of vague corporate lingo that says a lot but means a little.
If that fails, I'll gladly become a cook or a baker. I have the skills and practice them daily. It'll be like a breath of fresh air after 16 years of dealing with greedy translation companies.
[Edited at 2024-08-06 13:13 GMT] ▲ Collapse
| | | | Denis Danchenko
Ukraine
Local time: 17:54
Member (2012)
English to Russian
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Epameinondas Soufleros wrote:
My first reaction is to step away from being an external collaborator of translation companies to being their competitor. I am actively looking for my own clients as a solo entrepreneur.
Following this path too.
If that fails, I'll gladly become a cook or a baker. I have the skills and practice them daily. It'll be like a breath of fresh air after 16 years of dealing with greedy translation companies.
[Edited at 2024-08-06 13:13 GMT]
Looks like I'll fall back on translating for hardware instead of 'wetware'.
[Edited at 2024-08-06 18:30 GMT]
| | | | Samuel Murray
Netherlands
Local time: 16:54
Member (2006)
English to Afrikaans
+ ...
For me, the number of jobs have been decreasing for the past 5 years, and the rates that clients are willing to pay have decreased dramatically over the past 3 years, and especially after the release of ChatGPT.
Corona caused more people to work from home, which flooded the market with translators (most of them terribly cheap). AI causes end-clients to demand much lower fees or expect fancy integrated translation workflows to take the place of human-based quality control. A numb... See more For me, the number of jobs have been decreasing for the past 5 years, and the rates that clients are willing to pay have decreased dramatically over the past 3 years, and especially after the release of ChatGPT.
Corona caused more people to work from home, which flooded the market with translators (most of them terribly cheap). AI causes end-clients to demand much lower fees or expect fancy integrated translation workflows to take the place of human-based quality control. A number of my agency clients have now set up offices in my home country, which has lower cost of living and whose translators can therefore afford to work for less.
But I think AI is the main culprit for the present situation. End-clients are demanding extremely low rates, and this causes agencies to simply stop offering service in those languages (regardless of whether there are translators who are actually willing to work for those low rates). ▲ Collapse
| | | | | Floods and flapjacks | Aug 6 |
James Hollander wrote:
Against all evidence to the contrary, I have to believe the AI wave is a storm that will pass, and customers will come to their senses and realize they need us after all.
Or we're (I'm) dead.
I think that analogy works with the amendment that, once the furore and hype has died down (storm has passed), there will nonetheless be some wetness that remains.
By which I mean, there are probably some sectors (& I fear mine is one) where AI will prove to have some value, some of the time, and will therefore change the nature of the work we do, without eliminating our traditional role entirely.
Epameinondas Soufleros wrote:
people are too willing to try the snake oil known as "AI".
Trouble is, old chap, it's not really snake oil. It definitely does work, sometimes.
It is certainly not a panacea, and it most definitely has limitations, and its value is exaggerated but by the same token, it's not utterly fraudulent.
I would say that to dismiss it entirely would be a mistake, but perhaps it is easier to be Manichean about it if you are fortunate to have an AI-proof alternative to turn to
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Samuel Murray wrote:
End-clients are demanding extremely low rates, and this causes agencies to ….
What makes you think it is end-clients demanding extremely low rates rather than the big agencies pushing down rates for their own gain?
My experience is that end-clients are still willing to pay high rates because (a) that’s what agencies still charge them and (b) they just want the job done and, compared to prices for any other professional service, even the highest translation rates are pitifully low.
| | | | | It is a rollercoaster | Aug 7 |
In the past 3 years I have noticed all the work is concentrated in the last 5 months of the year with some leftovers in January. I should really clone myself and use those months to the fullest but I can't.
| | | | | The general perception of the value of translations is plummeting | Aug 7 |
Personally, I don't think it's the effect of the AI yet – I work in AI and MT assessment too, and honestly don't see any significant improvement compared to what we've been seeing in the last 4-5 years for languages that are not English, and the best tools will be very expensive for most agencies.
I think it's more of a combination of the fierce competition between big LSPs for lower rates and fastest deadlines, and the amount of people entering the industry because they can't fi... See more Personally, I don't think it's the effect of the AI yet – I work in AI and MT assessment too, and honestly don't see any significant improvement compared to what we've been seeing in the last 4-5 years for languages that are not English, and the best tools will be very expensive for most agencies.
I think it's more of a combination of the fierce competition between big LSPs for lower rates and fastest deadlines, and the amount of people entering the industry because they can't find a stable job.
Don't know about your countries, but in my country the job market is terrifying if you're not in a STEM area, and the economy is *not* thriving since Covid. All of this contributes to a lot of non-professionals taking on jobs for low rates and taking the average quality down and down. Big LSPs don't care about quality and project managers handle multiple languages without the ability to assess anything directly.
I stopped taking on proofreading/editing jobs a few years ago when the average quality became lower and lower and the proofreader's task more and more frustrating. I now recently took on a reviewing job from a very big LSP in a very unlucky month and it was the worse translation I ever had under my eyes – the translator didn't even perform the routine automatic checks, and the project manager didn't even reply to my email explaining the situation.
The colleague that states he is not seeing any plummeting seems to be a jack of all trades handling 3 different language pairs and offering competitive rates for MTPE – I'm sure he is the exception and is really fluent in 4 languages and delivers quality work, but profiles like this are another issue in the market in general.
I agree with those who say we should leave the big agencies, but I find it harder and harder to find smaller customers who are able to understand the value of a quality translation. Having a network of direct clients that makes up to what my income from LSPs was just 5 years ago seems like an impossible mission.
Personally, I'm seeing some interesting offers in the marketing field for the role of cultural consultant / in country editor and will give myself a few months to see if something in that path can become an interesting reality combined with my copywriting and communication background, but I'm also looking for other career paths, because the general perception of translation and seeing the average quality of translations delivered today takes all my motivation away.
Also, after almost 15 years, maybe it's time for a change and it could not be for the worse. ▲ Collapse
| | | | Daryo
United Kingdom
Local time: 15:54
Serbian to English
+ ...
only a downward spiral ...
If after few spectacular debacles the majority wakes up and sees through the current hype , there might be a dead cat bounce in the human translation market.
But in the long term Ai is not "a storm that will pass". It will keep improving and pushing humans out - thanks to a minority of humans who can't see past the end of their nose ...
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Brian Quigley
Netherlands
Local time: 16:54
Member (2008)
Dutch to English
| fewer agency requests? | Nov 6 |
I have seen a consistent decline in the number of requests from my best agency clients. My main client told me not to worry because it is just a "calm period" but this not anything like I've seen in the last 10 years.
Also, I've seen an increase in the requests for MTPE assignments, which I have started to accept out of necessity.
The decline in straight translation work started after the pandemic and seems to have gotten a lot worse over the last six months.
... See more I have seen a consistent decline in the number of requests from my best agency clients. My main client told me not to worry because it is just a "calm period" but this not anything like I've seen in the last 10 years.
Also, I've seen an increase in the requests for MTPE assignments, which I have started to accept out of necessity.
The decline in straight translation work started after the pandemic and seems to have gotten a lot worse over the last six months.
Is this just my language pair (NL-EN) or is it universal?
[Edited at 2024-11-06 15:46 GMT] ▲ Collapse
| | | | JAN SNAUWAERT
Belgium
Local time: 16:54
Member (2008)
French to Dutch
+ ...
TOPIC STARTER | It's a bit better now; but probably won't make up for the year | Nov 6 |
Brian Quigley wrote:
I have seen a consistent decline in the number of requests from my best agency clients. My main client told me not to worry because it is just a "calm period" but this not anything like I've seen in the last 10 years.
Also, I've seen an increase in the requests for MTPE assignments, which I have started to accept out of necessity.
The decline in straight translation work started after the pandemic and seems to have gotten a lot worse over the last six months.
Is this just my language pair (NL-EN) or is it universal?
[Edited at 2024-11-06 15:46 GMT]
I think it is universal.
Nowadays, I guess it is almost obligatory to accept MTPE assignments, if one wants to have a liveable income.
Fortunately for me, since I posted this topic on the forum, things have gone better for me, business-wise.
But it is unlikely that 2024 will become what I would call a "good" year.
| | | | finnword1
United States
Local time: 10:54
English to Finnish
+ ...
until 2014 normal
2015-2017 slowing down
2018 - 2021 growing back to normal
2022 drastic drop
2023 further drop
2024 will be the worst
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